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Monthly Archives: August 2014
False discoveries everywhere
Since John Ioannidis published a paper in 2005 provocatively titled Why Most Published Research Findings are False, the general public and also researchers have gained a greater awareness of the unreliability of scientific discoveries based on “a single study assessed by formal … Continue reading
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Is two still the magic number?
When doing data analysis, we have come to regard two as the threshold that a t-statistic must clear in order to declare a variable statistically significant. As most readers will know, this critical value ensures a 5% level of significance given a … Continue reading
Posted in statistics, stock market forecasting
Tagged backtesting, data snooping, false discovery, stock market
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