Category Archives: Uncategorized

False discoveries everywhere

Posted on August 19, 2014 by lstake

Since John Ioannidis published a paper in 2005 provocatively titled Why Most Published Research Findings are False, the general public and also researchers have gained a greater awareness of the unreliability of scientific discoveries based on “a single study assessed by formal … Continue reading →

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The Hedgehog and the Fox Redux

Posted on June 17, 2014 by lstake

Many fund managers will be aware of Philip Tetlock’s book “Expert Political Judgment” published in 2005. In the book, Tetlock analyzes forecasts collected from 284 experts over twenty years. While he focuses primarily on the ability of political experts to … Continue reading →

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